Possible Announcement of New Treo at CTIA

[deesugar]

It's just a possibility but do you think somebody like Suzan DelBene of Microsoft who's the opening keynote speaker for the CTIA conference in SFO next month might say something?

It was the launching site for the 650 last year.

http://www.wirelessit.com/general/keynotes.cfm

Just a thought.

[samkim]

That's a reasonable guess. Since there's already a working prototype, the timing would be good for an annnouncement and demonstration.
I'm sure Palm wouldn't mind getting Microsoft's marketing support.

I wonder if that would mean a Cobalt Treo announcement would be held off for another time...

[Rome]

I doubt that we would hear anything from Palm at CTIA.

[DrDoom]

Is that your professional opinion or just a gut reaction? I believe we might.

[dstrauss]

DrDoom

Just noticed your signature, and I hate to rain on your parade, but it will be a cold day in a very hot place before anyone sees Cobalt. Just think, it's almost on its two year anniversary and NOT A SINGLE COBALT PDA. It either sucks big time, or is the Edsel of the computing world.

[DrDoom]

DrDoom

Just noticed your signature, and I hate to rain on your parade, but it will be a cold day in a very hot place before anyone sees Cobalt. Just think, it's almost on its two year anniversary and NOT A SINGLE COBALT PDA. It either sucks big time, or is the Edsel of the computing world.

Well, I like my Edsel. It's the best car ever made. Period. :p

[DrDoom]

DrDoom

Just noticed your signature, and I hate to rain on your parade, but it will be a cold day in a very hot place before anyone sees Cobalt. Just think, it's almost on its two year anniversary and NOT A SINGLE COBALT PDA. It either sucks big time, or is the Edsel of the computing world.

Also, on a serious note. I truly believe you're wrong. Cobalt as it was originally concieved will probably never see the light of day, but something called Cobalt will. I don't really care if it's Cobalt 1.1 or Cobalt revision 4,694, as long as its a multitasking PalmOS that has NOTHING to do with Microsatan, you know? :evil:

[dstrauss]

Also, on a serious note. I truly believe you're wrong. Cobalt as it was originally concieved will probably never see the light of day, but something called Cobalt will. I don't really care if it's Cobalt 1.1 or Cobalt revision 4,694, as long as its a multitasking PalmOS that has NOTHING to do with Microsatan, you know? :evil:

Yes, I share that same love for M$oft that you do, so I'd love to see a Palm-whatever stay on top of Windoze Mobile. However, it may be too late as the bean counters appear to be in control and short term profit may be all she wrote. As I said in another post here on TC, all signs point to the Treo being a weapon in the M$oft attack on RIM and the corporate email world. Activesyinc in the latest Versamail works pretty good - if Windoze Mobile 5 really implements push email on an Exchange server, what better way than to stunt RIM by tying onto the best smartphone hardware out there? :(

[DrDoom]

...but I still believe that with the return of Hawkins to the fold we may see a resurgence of Handsprings™ old "going against the grain" philosophy. That COULD mean a PalmOS handheld as it holds with that line of thinking. I fear you may be correct, but that's my line of reasoning for a POSSIBLE Cobalt Treo™.
On an unrelated note, typing "™" is fun.

[MadSuburbanDad]

Given that the current OS is getting long in the tooth, why has Cobalt not been released? Also, with Palm (reportedly) now preparing to use Microsoft 5.0 on a new version of the Treo, does anyone read that as a sign it won't be doing Cobalt?

[Antoine of MMM]

MadSuburbanDad;
Palm's reason for not doing Cobalt had in part to do with the investment they made towards making Garnet usable for their devices, and also that Cobalt in many respects was not ready (even in 6.1) for prime time. A compnay with finaincial issues such as they last year, coudl ill afford to hinge the whole company on an OS that developers didnt even fully back.

Does preping a WM Treo mean there will be no Cobalt/Garnet/PalmLinux one? NO. Simply, Palm has to make sure they can make money. If investigating other platforms that are getting better while the PalmOS isnt means they at least have a plan of keeping their name and devices in our pocket, then thats a good sign. Yes, most of the users that have had PalmOS for a while do not want WM. But it would by no means be a bad idea for Palm to release ONE WM model with their most recognizable nameplate. That would be called capitalizing on the market perception on your product. Not great long term stragety, but good enough in the short term to help folks keep their jobs.

[dstrauss]

Antoine of MMM

I understand your thinking, but I'm afraid you may be wrong. A company such as Palm, that's on the ropes financially, CANNOT afford to support two completely different operating systems. You could argue that a Garnet and a Cobalt line (on the higher end phone) could be do-able, but Garnet and WM5 are like trying to support Mac and WinXP on the same platform - it just doesn't make sense. Support would be a nightmare - what might work with one OS on one hardware set may be a software problem in the other OS, or it could be a hardware problem - who knows.

If they are really working on a WM5 Treo (which I believe they are) then it it is adios for Palm OS. Verizon and Sprint are racing towards real 3G, and I'm sure Cingular is in the hunt as well. Cobalt stumbled miserably at the starting gate (there's still not even a PDA in Cobalt clothing), and real EV-DO access is going to demand TRUE multi-tasking - something Palm can't deliver. Enter WM5.....

Remember - two short years ago, this was the company trumpeting the Treo 600 as just the first in a whole family of Treo related smartphones. Well, they got one stepchild out the door (T650) and now they want to change parentage - a doomsday scenario if you ask me.

[Reapman]

True, however if some of the other rumors are true, such as HTC building the WM5 edition, Palm may have (almost) no involvement in that model.

I think a Palm OS based, er, Palm Treo, is probably a stretch, but not 100% unlikley. Sad really that Palm OS dropped the ball. :cry:

[quake97]

I'm deathly afraid Palm will have a Windows Mobile version of the next Treo out before a PalmOS version of it.

Joe

[MadSuburbanDad]

Thanks Antoine

[torifile]

You should put a question mark in your title since you're really asking a question. The way you've phrased it, you make it sound like there's some indication that there will be an announcement.

[samkim]

...but I still believe that with the return of Hawkins to the fold we may see a resurgence of Handsprings™ old "going against the grain" philosophy.

??
I don't recall Hawkins ever leaving Palm after the Handspring merger a couple years ago. I know he's been doing the brain stuff part-time...

[samkim]

I understand your thinking, but I'm afraid you may be wrong. A company such as Palm, that's on the ropes financially, CANNOT afford to support two completely different operating systems.
Palm is not "on the ropes financially." They are very profitable and revenue is growing rapidly. And they're sitting on $100 million in cash. (PalmSource on the other hand, is on the ropes...)

You could argue that a Garnet and a Cobalt line (on the higher end phone) could be do-able, but Garnet and WM5 are like trying to support Mac and WinXP on the same platform - it just doesn't make sense. Support would be a nightmare - what might work with one OS on one hardware set may be a software problem in the other OS, or it could be a hardware problem - who knows.

It's called growth. When you create a new product, sometimes that product requires its own support and investment. How do you handle this "nightmare"? You hire more people and dedicate them to this new product. That's how small companies become big companies.

PalmOS-based products generate a billion dollars in revenue and $400 million in profits for Palm. It makes absolutely no sense to walk away from that unless the market demand for PalmOS-based products dries up. But again, revenue is growing.

Palm already dominates the PalmOS handheld market, and it's using its very successful Treo brand and technology to jump into what's turned out to be a bigger and faster growing market.

As you said, Palm talked about a "family" of Treos. If they kill off all the existing (PalmOS) Treos when they launch a WinMo Treo, they'd be left with just one Treo again!

[newtonjack]

Palm is not "on the ropes financially." They are very profitable and revenue is growing rapidly. And they're sitting on $100 million in cash. (PalmSource on the other hand, is on the ropes...)


PALM has 350 million cash as of june 30th, 2005. They also generated 35 million cash in the 3 months up yp 6/30.

Only 35 million total debt.

PALM financially at its best shape ever and getting better.

[samkim]

Palm is not "on the ropes financially." They are very profitable and revenue is growing rapidly. And they're sitting on $100 million in cash. (PalmSource on the other hand, is on the ropes...)


PALM has 350 million cash as of june 30th, 2005. They also generated 35 million cash in the 3 months up yp 6/30.I was looking at May 2005 data, but it shouldn't be too far off...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=PALM&annual
That $350 million figure probably includes short term investments.

Only 35 million total debt.That's long term debt...

PALM financially at its best shape ever and getting better.Yup.

[DrDoom]

...I meant symbolically. Hawkins has been absent from every press release and media regarding the Treo for the last year, if not two. I've seen no interviews with him until this recent one. I trust Jeff to come up with a winning product a hell of a lot more than anyone else up there.
I can here the conversation a year ago as the 650 (which I do love) neared release.
Colligan: So Jeff we've got the new Treo ready to go. You wanna do something cool to leak it like last time.
Hawkins: Sure! Lemme see the specs on the final design. Did you fix that memory thing?
Colligan: Uhhhhh...
Hawkins: What about the Bluetooth? You know how bad they all whined last time. Did you get those kinks worked out?
Colligan: Bluetooth's on there.
Hawkins: Ed, you haven't fixed either one of those problems have you?
Colligan: We're gonna! We just need some feedback from our beta testers.
Hawkins Who's beta testing it?
Colligan: America.
Hawkins: You know what? I think I'll pass this time. I'm sure you guys can come up with some good buzz without me.
Colligan: But Jeff! You're the "Godfather" of handhelds! We NEED you!
Hawkins: Well, al...HEY! What's that over there???
*points to other side of room*
Colligan: Where?!?!
Hawkins: Later sucker!!!
*running down the hall cackling madly*

[B-model]

looks like someone was working the mailroom at palm (one)

[dstrauss]

LMAO - Doom - that's so real (almost scary). I hope you're right about Hawkins' return to prominenece (ala Jobs) but I have doubts that the bean counters at Palm will really listen to him.

[aetherion]

CTIA will be something worth paying attention to. As the original poster said, it's very likely that we'll hear some interesting news then...or so a very informed little birdie told me.

[samkim]

Looks like Palm will have a major presence at CTIA (9/27-29), perhaps the biggest of all the companies attending.

A large exhibit space: first floor floorplan (pdf) (http://www.wirelessit.com/docs/IT_O5_First__Floor_Detailed.pdf)
And a very large "exhibitor meeting room": second floor floorplan (pdf) (http://www.wirelessit.com/docs/IT_O5_Second_Floor_Detailed.pdf)
Very few companies rent meeting rooms.

I've never been to a CTIA conference. What do they do in the meeting rooms, aside from doing huge product launches? Does Palm (the device company) have a need to meet with developers? How about resellers? And exactly how have the prior Palm or Handspring product launches been handled?

And here's something interesting...
The main exhibit space is labeled "PalmOne" in the floorplan. But the meeting room is labeled "Palm, Inc." which seems to indicate that they made the decision to rent the (huge) meeting room after their initial decision to have a presence as an exhibitor. That is, one decision was made before July 14 (the date of the name change), and the other was made after. One way of looking at it is, whatever they’re using the meeting room for, they weren’t sure about it when they signed up for the main exhibit space before July 14. It doesn't appear to be business as usual activity for Palm at CTIA.


To me, this all says that Palm will announce something big on Sept 27. I have no evidence that it’ll be a WinMo Treo, as opposed to say, another PalmOS Treo, but I’d certainly be disappointed if it didn’t happen (as would anyone else who buys into this rumor I’m helping to feed). (And since this is a wireless conference, this wouldn't be the ideal place to launch a regular pda or even a new Life Drive.) If you like to gamble, er invest, this might be a good time to pick up some PALM shares. The sales potential of a WinMo Treo would be huge relative to Palm's current sales, and so the stock price could make a big move.

Comments? Other plausible explanations?

[MisterFuhrman]

Looks like Palm will have a major presence at CTIA (9/27-29), perhaps the biggest of all the companies attending.

A large exhibit space: first floor floorplan (pdf) (http://www.wirelessit.com/docs/IT_O5_First__Floor_Detailed.pdf)
And a very large "exhibitor meeting room": second floor floorplan (pdf) (http://www.wirelessit.com/docs/IT_O5_Second_Floor_Detailed.pdf)
Very few companies rent meeting rooms.

I've never been to a CTIA conference. What do they do in the meeting rooms, aside from doing huge product launches? Does Palm (the device company) have a need to meet with developers? How about resellers? And exactly how have the prior Palm or Handspring product launches been handled?

And here's something interesting...
The main exhibit space is labeled "PalmOne" in the floorplan. But the meeting room is labeled "Palm, Inc." which seems to indicate that they made the decision to rent the (huge) meeting room after their initial decision to have a presence as an exhibitor. That is, one decision was made before July 14 (the date of the name change), and the other was made after. One way of looking at it is, whatever they’re using the meeting room for, they weren’t sure about it when they signed up for the main exhibit space before July 14. It doesn't appear to be business as usual activity for Palm at CTIA.


To me, this all says that Palm will announce something big on Sept 27. I have no evidence that it’ll be a WinMo Treo, as opposed to say, another PalmOS Treo, but I’d certainly be disappointed if it didn’t happen (as would anyone else who buys into this rumor I’m helping to feed). (And since this is a wireless conference, this wouldn't be the ideal place to launch a regular pda or even a new Life Drive.) If you like to gamble, er invest, this might be a good time to pick up some PALM shares. The sales potential of a WinMo Treo would be huge relative to Palm's current sales, and so the stock price could make a big move.

Comments? Other plausible explanations?

Great find, and great analysis. I think you may be on to something.

I'm just really hoping its not another "Mobile Manager" product.

[whatever7]

Not that big. Nokia is bigger. ;)

They (Palm) better put up a good show I will tell you that.

[samkim]

Actually, I was including their meeting room space on the second floor, though I admit that if it's used in a different way, the room may not be comparable to "normal" exhibit space.

[aetherion]

Not that big. Nokia is bigger. ;)

They (Palm) better put up a good show I will tell you that.


They will ;)

[samkim]

Is there anything you'd like to share with us?

[hlazar]

It's possible that the show will showcase the new palm devices coming out, not the new treo (s)

Henry L lazarus hlazar@netaxs.com
www.netaxs.com/~hlazar/
www.netaxs.com/~hlazar/god.html

[B-model]

that's it I'm going ... Who's with me !?!?!?

[imageone]

if NO new Treo is announced I think it will be a big mistake on Palm's part, even if it's still a couple of months out. Also if they do it better be something another than the addition of EVDO. The competition is heating up and we can't wait forever on Palm.

http://www.sprint.com/business/products/phones/ppc6700_allPcsPhones.jsp

[gharrod]

new Tungsten X to be announced and Dell will have a new Axiom with WM5 that has a VoIP client...NO new Treo slated to be announced at this time.

[imageone]

new Tungsten X to be announced and Dell will have a new Axiom with WM5 that has a VoIP client...NO new Treo slated to be announced at this time.


than my feeling is even when they do, it want be loaded like the PPC 6700.
I hate to say it but I'm thinking about moving over to the dark side. This thing is the same size as the 650 (if not smaller) just a little thicker, but not by much. And after reading the specs. it's what I want (except for the WM 5). WIFI, EVDO, speed, size, great keyboard etc.

[aetherion]

Is there anything you'd like to share with us?

I really cannot say much more except to pay attention to wait for CTIA. We'll get good news then...some of which we may already know and also I expect some surprises...but you can count on a Treo announcement.

[gharrod]

aetherion, I hope you are right and I am wrong but my sources say NO Treo announcement at CTIA. If you cannot confirm we will get anything more then we already know then why would you need to protect your sources?